The Vietnamese government recently submitted a report to the National Assembly addressing feedback from lawmakers on the proposed investment plan for the North-South high-speed railway project.

Among the suggestions was a proposal to extend the railway to Can Tho or even further to Ca Mau, increasing the total length to approximately 2,110 km from Lang Son to Ca Mau.

However, the government recommended maintaining the original plan, which focuses on a 1,541 km route from Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh City, citing technical and economic considerations.

Planned route and scope

The proposed North-South high-speed railway will stretch 1,541 km, beginning at Ngoc Hoi Station in Hanoi and ending at Thu Thiem Station in Ho Chi Minh City.

It will traverse 20 provinces and cities, including major urban and economic hubs like Hanoi, Thanh Hoa, Da Nang, Nha Trang, and Ho Chi Minh City.

While the railway network outlined in Vietnam’s 2021–2030 railway development plan (vision to 2050) includes additional lines, such as Lang Son to Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City to Can Tho, these sections are designed as standard railways with operating speeds of 160–200 km/h rather than high-speed rail. The government aims to prioritize the Hanoi-HCMC segment due to its alignment with long-term economic and demographic needs.

The government noted that the Hanoi-HCMC section is designed for a maximum speed of 350 km/h to ensure it meets global trends and long-term efficiency criteria.

Why not extend to Can Tho or Ca Mau?

The Lang Son-Hanoi and HCMC-Can Tho segments serve different transportation demands, with lower passenger volumes compared to the Hanoi-HCMC corridor. As a result, these routes are better suited to standard rail infrastructure rather than high-speed rail.

Extending the high-speed rail further south would entail significantly higher costs and technical complexities without guaranteed economic returns. The government emphasized the importance of focusing resources on the Hanoi-HCMC line, which has the highest potential for passenger demand and economic impact.

The government explained its decision to adopt a maximum speed of 350 km/h for the high-speed railway, rather than 200–250 km/h:

Global Trends: Speeds of 350 km/h are now the global standard for long-distance high-speed rail. While speeds of 200–250 km/h were prevalent 25–50 years ago, they are now largely reserved for short- to medium-distance routes.

Passenger Demand: A 350 km/h railway is more competitive for distances exceeding 800 km, such as the Hanoi-HCMC corridor. Studies show that at this speed, the railway could attract 12.5% more passengers than at 250 km/h.

Future Proofing: While the initial investment cost for a 350 km/h system is 8–9% higher than for a 250 km/h system, upgrading a 250 km/h system to 350 km/h later would be highly inefficient and costly.

Economic justification

The government provided detailed projections for certain sections of the railway. For example, the Nam Dinh section, spanning 12 km, is expected to cost $1.66 billion over 30 years while generating $2.06 billion in benefits.

This reflects the importance of incorporating regional hubs into the route, even if it requires slight detours, as seen in high-speed rail projects in Japan, South Korea, and China.

Nam Dinh, as a key transport hub with a projected population of 600,000 by 2040, and an expected annual passenger volume of nearly 3 million by 2050, exemplifies the strategic planning behind route design.

The National Assembly is expected to vote on the high-speed railway investment proposal tomorrow, marking a critical milestone in Vietnam’s transportation infrastructure development.

Tran Thuong