VietNamNet Bridge - With good GDP growth in the first three quarters of the year, economists have expressed concern about the driving force for economic growth in the years to come and the next stages of development.

The GDP growth rate in the third quarter of the year reached a record high of 7.46 percent, so the 6.7 percent growth rate target is realistic. However, CIEM (the Central Institute of Economic Management) director Nguyen Dinh Cung warned that the gap between growth and income is quite large. 

“This shows that GNI (gross national income) growth tends to be lower and further away from GDP (gross domestic product) growth,” Cung commented.

The GDP growth rate in the third quarter of the year reached a record high of 7.46 percent, so the 6.7 percent growth rate target is realistic.

Reports show that the strong rise of processing and manufacturing industry, especially the high number of exports of Samsung Vietnam, helped offset the decline of the mining industry and contributed to the high growth rate. 

In addition, the development of construction, tourism service sector, agriculture & forestry and growth from the foreign-invested economic sector has also helped a lot.

However, it is unclear if these factors will continue to be the driving force for economic growth in the next years. 

An analyst also said that it is necessary to think about what would happen if the factors which greatly contributed to growth in the third quarter do not exist in coming years. 

“What would Vietnam rely on to gain economic growth, then, without Samsung Note 8?” he said. “Samsung Note 8 must not be the driving force for economic growth.”

The government has decided that Vietnam needs to obtain 6.5-6.7 percent growth rate in 2018.

He went on to say that Vietnam needs a new approach to create a new driving force for sustainable economic growth. 

Cung emphasized that the priority task for 2018 is reducing business costs, while it is necessary to develop the domestic economic sector to narrow the gap between GNI and GDP. 

Also the country needs to speed up business environment reform, cut logistics costs, accelerate the number of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and create favorable conditions for economic sectors to develop.

“These all are not new solutions. But the problem is how solutions are implemented,” he said.

Regarding business environment reform, he said the government needs to force ministries to cut one-third to one-fourth of unnecessary business conditions.

Huynh The Du from Fulbright Vietnam commented that besides Hanoi and HCMC, and the major economic zones, Vietnam should gather strength to develop special economic zones, which could be seen as the new motive power for economic growth. 

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Thanh Mai