The General Department of Customs (GDC) reported that Vietnam exported 50,000 tons of coffee last October, worth $292.7 million, and 1.2 million tons in the first 10 months of the year, worth $4.6 billion. Though the export volume decreased by 10.8 percent, export value soared by 40.1 percent over the same period last year.

The 10-month average coffee export price was $3,981 per ton, up 57 percent, the record high price in the last 30 years since the day Vietnam began exporting coffee to the world market.

Meanwhile, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) reported that in the 2023-2024 crop (from October 2023 to October 2024), Vietnam exported 1.46 million tons of coffee, a decrease of 12.1 percent from the previous crop.

However, export value still increased sharply by 33 percent because the coffee price hit a record high. The exports of the last crop brought revenue of $5.4 billion, an unprecedented level.

Vicofa’s deputy chair Do Ha Nam commented that 2024 is a special year for coffee. Vietnam for the first time can export coffee with the highest price in the world. Robusta export price is even higher than Arabica.

The coffee price has been escalating steadily since the beginning of the year. In January, Vietnam exported coffee at just $3,054 per ton, while in October, the export price soared to $5,855 per ton, which means that within just 10 months, the coffee price increased by 91.7 percent.

In the domestic market, coffee bean prices hovered around VND58-59 million in late October, and then soared to VND105-106 million tons on November 8. In late April, the coffee price climbed to the historic peak of VND131 million per ton. In the Central Highlands, people call coffee plants ‘ATMs’ that ‘cough out’ money.

Vietnam’s coffee plays an increasingly important role in the world market.  Its coffee production and output has big impact on price trends in the world.

Vietnamese farmers are entering the new harvesting season. Vicofa predicted that export volume in the last months of the year will recover thanks to higher demand and output in the year-end sale season.

Vietnam pins high hopes on EUDR

Analysts said Vietnam’s coffee sector is awaiting a historic decision from Europe, related to EUDR (EU Regulation on Deforestation-free Products).

Vietnam’s coffee products are exported to over 80 countries and territories. The EU market consumes 38 percent of Vietnam’s total coffee exports each year.

The EU is now the biggest coffee importer in the world, accounting for 33-35 percent of the global market share. The consumption of the market in 2024 is expected to reach $48 billion and the figure may escalate to $58 billion by 2029. Therefore, any big policy on imports will have a prompt impact on the coffee price performance.

Under the EUDR roadmap, from December 30, 2024, businesses won’t be able to export some agricultural products, including coffee, to the EU market if they cannot prove that their products have no relation to deforestation.

Soon after the EU released the new regulation related to coffee imports, worries were raised in domestic and international markets about supply-demand changes. The information has been reflected in the coffee price performance in 2024.

EU countries are rushing to import coffee to ensure sufficient supply prior to December 30, 2024. This, plus the coffee output decrease in major coffee production countries, has created a ‘price fever’ over the globe because of the temporary supply-demand imbalance.

The EC in October proposed delaying the EUDR implementation for one year. The proposal promptly got the consensus from EUCO, but faced opposition from environmental organizations. The final decision about EUDR roadmap will be announced in some days following the European Parliament’s voting on November 13-14.

If the EUDR roadmap remains unchanged, in the short term, importers will accelerate imports of coffee in the rest months of 2024, which will lead to a spike in coffee demand.

In case the EU decides to delay EUDR implementation, supply-demand would be stable. This, plus additional supply from Vietnam (which is harvesting coffee), is expected to curb the coffee prices below $4,700 per ton. If so, the domestic coffee price would be VND100,000-110,000 per kilogram only.

Nam affirmed that all coffee export companies in Vietnam are ready to export products meeting EUDR requirements.

Tam An