During the morning session of April 9, the VN-Index plunged by nearly 50 points at one point, briefly falling below the 1,100-point mark. Although the market staged a brief recovery, the upward momentum didn’t last long.

Selling pressure continued to overwhelm bargain-hunting demand, dragging down most stocks for a fourth consecutive session. Following a historic 88-point drop on April 3, the VN-Index continued to decline over the next three sessions, losing nearly 80 points on April 8. By early morning April 9, it had fallen by almost 50 points, sinking well below 1,100.

At the opening of the afternoon session, the index fell by over 21 points, settling at 1,111 (down 1.92%).

The morning session was marked by heavy volatility, with no clear signs of recovery. As of 9:30 a.m., the VN-Index was down more than 46 points to 1,086 (a 4.1% drop), while the VN30 fell 3.84% to 1,152 points.

Declining stocks vastly outnumbered gainers, with 360 stocks in the red, including 150 hitting the floor price. Only 23 stocks gained.

In the VN30 group, only a few stocks managed modest gains: Vingroup (VIC), chaired by Pham Nhat Vuong, rose 200 VND to 55,300 VND per share; Vinhomes (VHM) increased 100 VND to 47,100 VND; and Sabeco (SAB) added 50 VND to 4,650 VND. All other VN30 stocks declined.

Key blue-chip stocks continued to hit floor prices with no buy orders, including BCM, GVR, HPG, MSN, PLX, SSI, and BVH.

The sell-off spread across the market, affecting both good and weak stocks, driven by panic selling, margin calls, and cross-selling. Even sectors perceived to be less sensitive - like banking and consumer goods - were not spared.

Many stocks, including blue chips, have now fallen below their COVID-19 crash lows when the VN-Index dropped below 900 points in March 2020.

By 10:00 a.m., the VN-Index had pared losses to just over 15 points (down 1.3%) at 1,118, with trading activity picking up.

At 10:05 a.m., the market unexpectedly turned positive, and the VN-Index gained nearly 5 points. But by 10:17 a.m., the index reversed course again, falling over 14 points back to 1,118.

By the end of the morning session, selling intensified. The VN-Index closed down 32.48 points (2.87%) at 1,100.31. Year to date, the index has dropped over 14%.

Several brokerage leaders and fund managers believe that while tariff pressures are real, the market’s reaction appears overly pessimistic. They view this as a buying opportunity. However, a brokerage director warned that there’s still no positive market signal. Risks from margin calls persist, and chain-reaction selling remains hard to control. Many are drawing comparisons to the March 2020 COVID crash and the 2022 bond market meltdown.

Historically, persistent bad news has prolonged market declines. For instance, during the 2020 crash, the market dropped sharply starting March 9, but didn’t hit bottom until March 30 - nearly a full month of losses that caught out many premature bottom-fishers.

Vietnam’s stock market has continued to slide in tandem with global markets, as investors brace for the US to formalize retaliatory tariffs on April 9. Under Trump’s latest move, tariffs on all Chinese imports are set to rise to 104%, up from the initially announced 34%. The increase came after China failed to withdraw its retaliatory 34% tariffs on US goods before noon on April 8.

For Vietnam, a government delegation is currently in the US to negotiate over the proposed 46% tariff. The final rate will depend on the outcome of ongoing discussions.

According to Dinh Quang Hinh, Head of Market Strategy at VnDirect Securities, a 46% US tariff could significantly impact Vietnam’s export outlook.

In the worst-case scenario, exports to the US may fall 20–25%, leading to a 9–11% drop in total export turnover in 2025, which could shave 2–3 percentage points off GDP growth. If the negotiated tariff is lowered to 20–25%, the impact would be more contained: exports to the US could drop just 5–10%, and total exports by 3–5%, resulting in GDP growth being trimmed by 0.5–1 percentage point.

The final outcome will depend on trade negotiations led by Vietnam’s Deputy Prime Minister.

Export-heavy sectors most exposed to the US - such as seafood, furniture, and industrial real estate - are expected to take the hardest hit. The seafood sector may see declining demand and profit margins; furniture manufacturers could face supply chain disruptions; and the industrial real estate sector may see a slowdown in FDI inflows. On the other hand, sectors like transport infrastructure, construction plastics, and fertilizer are expected to face minimal impact.

Manh Ha