Vietnamese urbanites, in particular, have fewer children because of pressure to find jobs and housing, high living expenses, and high costs of raising and caring for children.

In addition, inadequate infrastructure and services are also cited as affecting Vietnamese decisions on getting married and having children. Meanwhile, the abortion rate has increased.

The 2019 statistics released by the General Statistics Office (GSO) showed that the average fertility rate of the wealthiest people was two children, while the poorest was 2.4. Well-off families and middle income earners had 2.03-2.07 children.  The agency did not specify the criteria to list families as ‘wealthiest’, ‘wealthy’, ‘poorest’ and ‘poor’.

GSO found that people with primary education level or lower had 2.35 children, while those with high education level or higher had 1.98 children.

Hoang said in urban areas, the lack of schools and concerns about tuition and living expenses all contribute to young couples hesitating to have children. Many people want to spend time to enjoy life and spend money on personal leisure rather than take care of children.

There is a growing tendency that urban women give birth later and have fewer babies than rural women. In cities, women aged 25-29 have the least number of children: 127 children per 1,000 women. Meanwhile, in rural areas, women aged 20-24 have the highest fertility rate (147 children per 1,000 women)

Vietnam has maintained the replacement fertility level since 2006 (the total fertility rate – TFR – is below 2.1 children). However, the fertility rate in the country has become lower over the last 25 years.

HCM City now has the lowest birth rate in the country with 1.32 children per woman, according to a 2023 report. In the eastern part of the southern region, the current birth rate is just 1.47 children per woman, which is very low and getting lower.

The fertility rate in Vietnam in 2023 was 1.96 children per woman, the lowest level in history, and it is decreasing further.

Currently, 21 out of 63 cities/provinces have lower birth rates and are mostly located in the southern key economic zone with high urbanization and economic growth rates.

Associate Prof Dr Nguyen Duc Vinh, head of the Institute of Sociology, has publicized the results of a survey on 1,200 women in four cities/provinces in the south which have low fertility rates, including Khanh Hoa, HCM City, Soc Trang and Ca Mau in 2023.

The survey found that the main reason for HCM City residents to not have more children is that they ‘already have enough children’ (56 percent of polled people). 

Meanwhile, 30 percent said they don’t want to have more children because they don’t have money to raise children well. Only 5-6 percent said they don’t have accommodations or their houses are too cramped, and education and healthcare service fees are very high.

Commenting about young people’s growing hesitation to marry and give birth, Prof Nguyen Dinh Cu, a leading expert on population, said people should have a long-term vision instead of only caring about immediate benefits and worries.

“It is true that if young people don’t have children, they can enjoy more freedom and can use time as they want. However, people need to keep a long term vision. They should think about what they will be when they get older,” he said.

The expert said that social welfare in Vietnam is still not good enough to take care of elderly people. To date, this relies on families and the community.

Moreover, he said, if having children, people have higher motivation to work and to experience a sense of responsibility and love.

Experts all have warned that if the fertility rate in Vietnam continues to decrease, Vietnam will have minus population growth rate in 30 years, which means that after 2054, the population would no longer grow and the decline would be increasingly sharp.

In the 5-year period after 2054, the population would decrease by 0.04 percent annually. The decrease is expected to reach 0.18 percent by the end of the forecasting period (2064-2069), which means a decrease of 200,000 people each year.

If the replacement level is maintained throughout the forecasting period, Vietnam’s population will see a slight increase by 0.17 percent, or 200,000 people each year.

Vo Thu