At the national scientific conference assessing Vietnam's 2024 economy and its outlook for 2025, held on April 10 under the theme “Promoting economic institutional reform in a new context,” Professor Pham Hong Chuong, President of the National Economics University, emphasized that the 8% growth target for 2025 and beyond is highly ambitious.

He cited global geopolitical tensions, U.S. tariff policies, and international responses as key external pressures. According to him, to ensure long-term sustainable growth, Vietnam must not only leverage traditional growth drivers but also develop a robust institutional framework.

An inclusive institutional system, he said, is a critical foundation for a fully functioning market economy. It fosters broad public participation in economic activity and ensures equitable distribution of economic benefits, enabling the continued expansion and sustainability of such institutions.

Associate Professor Pham The Anh of the National Economics University stated that the 8% growth goal should be viewed as an aspirational target, not one that must be achieved at all costs.

To ensure sustainable development, he stressed the need for Vietnam to focus on reforming its business environment and economic foundations, while maintaining macroeconomic stability.

Regarding monetary policy, Pham The Anh noted that Vietnam faces significant constraints. In an unstable global context, especially with rising tariffs, major central banks are expected to keep interest rates high, limiting Vietnam’s ability to reduce its own rates to stimulate growth. Lowering domestic rates under such conditions risks capital outflows.

He emphasized that Vietnam’s economy is now open not only in trade but also in investment, making global interest rate differentials a major constraint. Reducing interest rates while global rates remain elevated could destabilize exchange rates and increase risks of bad debt and speculative capital flowing into assets instead of production.

“Monetary policy should be used to stabilize the economy rather than fuel long-term growth. Sustainable growth must be based on structural reform, technological innovation, and attracting foreign investment,” he stated.

Dr. Dang Duc Anh, Deputy Director of the Institute of Policy and Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development, proposed the establishment of a special government task force, led by the Prime Minister, to focus on cutting administrative procedures and business conditions.

Former Director of the Institute for Development Strategy, Associate Professor Bui Tat Thang, remarked that this is an unprecedented period in which economic restructuring is taking place comprehensively and simultaneously.

He added that having a “chief commander” for this process is a positive sign, one that gives reason for optimism and opens the door to major success.

Experts further stressed the need to improve the legal and policy framework by minimizing administrative intervention, enhancing implementation efficiency, and ensuring fairness and transparency. They also called for a legislative mindset shift — one that supports innovation and moves away from a “ban if you can’t control” approach.

During the conference, the National Economics University released its 2024 annual publication titled “Promoting economic institutional reform in a new context.”

The publication includes three parts. Part I provides an overview of Vietnam's economy in 2024, including global economic trends and their impacts on Vietnam; and a sectoral overview of Vietnam’s economy (real economy, external sector, monetary-financial sector, and fiscal sector).

Part II evaluates Vietnam's economic institutions, including conceptual definitions, current legal frameworks, and the state apparatus supporting a market economy.

Part III presents global and domestic economic prospects for 2025, with macroeconomic policy recommendations and reform strategies for the institutional framework in the evolving context.

Nguyen Le