In today’s interconnected world, statistics - when taken out of context - can easily mislead. One such misconception is the interpretation of Vietnam’s large trade surplus with the United States as a sign of manipulation or imbalance. This misunderstanding has now translated into concrete action, as the US considers imposing tariffs of up to 46% on Vietnamese goods.

But are those numbers telling the full story of the Vietnam–US economic relationship? And who will ultimately pay the price if punitive tariffs are applied?

No manipulation - just market dynamics at work

Vietnam does not manipulate its currency. It does not illegally subsidize exports. Instead, the country has emerged from sweeping reforms and opened its economy with transparency and patience. It has integrated into global supply chains through legitimate, rules-based means.

Vietnam’s annual exports to the US exceed $100 billion, while imports from the US hover around $10 billion. This trade surplus is a natural outcome of an industrialization model centered on export-oriented manufacturing. But that doesn’t mean Vietnam is unfairly benefitting.

Much of what Vietnam exports is produced by foreign-invested enterprises - many of them American - who manufacture in Vietnam and ship goods back to the US. For instance, a smartphone labeled “Made in Vietnam” and sold for $500 in the US may only yield $15–20 in actual value retained by Vietnam. The rest flows back to design, R&D, branding, and distribution centers, most of which are in the US. The trade balance might show a surplus for Vietnam, but the value chain tells a very different story - one where the US gains more.

The US benefits - perhaps even more than Vietnam

Let’s be candid: Who really benefits the most from this economic relationship?

First, American consumers. Affordable products - from Nike shoes to wooden chairs to budget laptops made in Vietnam - stretch American paychecks further and raise living standards.

Second, American corporations. Their decision to move production to Vietnam was strategic - not forced - allowing them to lower costs, stabilize supply chains, and mitigate geopolitical risks. Vietnam has become a vital manufacturing alternative in Asia, while profits continue to flow back to Silicon Valley and Wall Street.

Third, American exporters. Vietnam imports billions of dollars in US agricultural products, medical devices, cotton, and machinery. In contrast, Vietnamese producers of staple goods like rice or fish sauce often struggle to meet strict technical barriers in the US market.

This is not a zero-sum game - it’s a win-win scenario, and arguably one where the US wins even more.

Vietnam: A humble master craftsman in global supply chains

The assumption that Vietnam is enriching itself at America’s expense is misguided. Vietnam plays the role of a skilled craftsman - assembling, ensuring quality, and meeting delivery deadlines - but does not control product design, pricing, or branding. Most of the profits are made elsewhere.

Maintaining this position comes at a cost: labor pressures, energy expenditures, and vulnerability to global disruptions. Vietnam cannot freely shape trade policy like the major powers. Even minor changes in tariffs or technical standards can overturn the entire structure. This fragility is not an unfair advantage - it’s a risk borne daily.

Tariffs on Vietnam would hurt US supply chains first

If the proposed 46% tariffs are enacted, the immediate casualties may not be Vietnamese firms, but rather the supply chains of American multinationals that have taken years to relocate to Vietnam. US consumers would face higher prices. Strategic Vietnam–US relations - built on mutual trust and respect - would suffer setbacks.

In an increasingly volatile world, preserving fair, transparent, and mutually beneficial trade relationships is the bedrock of sustainable stability.

Furthermore, the US appears to be focusing solely on merchandise trade deficits, overlooking its substantial services trade surplus with Vietnam.

Beyond the numbers: The need for deeper insight

Trade policy cannot be built on raw trade deficit data alone. Numbers do not reveal the complexities of value chains, actual economic gains, or the quality of partnerships. The real goal should be identifying mutual benefits and improving the lives of both nations’ people.

Vietnam has never sought to enrich itself through illegitimate means. It has not manipulated trade. It is simply doing what every aspirational country should do: participating in the global economy sincerely and with the hard work of its people.

And for that reason, Vietnam deserves to be treated fairly.

Dr. Nguyen Si Dung (chinhphu.vn)