If Vietnam’s declining birth rate continues, the country will reach the end of its demographic dividend by 2039, hit peak working-age population by 2042, and begin negative population growth after 2054, according to the Ministry of Health.

The Central Office of the Communist Party of Vietnam recently announced directives from the Politburo regarding the mid-term review of Resolution No. 21-NQ/TW on population policy adjustments.

The Politburo has assigned the Party Committees of the National Assembly and the Government to accelerate the drafting and approval of the Population Law in 2025, in accordance with the resolutions of the 13th National Party Congress.

 In the short term, legal regulations concerning birth limits, particularly Ordinance No. 06/2003 and Ordinance No. 08/2008, must be reviewed and amended by the first quarter of 2025.

The Ministry of Health is currently collecting feedback on a draft amendment to the Population Ordinance, proposing that decisions on childbirth, including the timing, number of children, and spacing between births, be left to couples and individuals.

 If approved, the existing rule limiting childbirth to one or two children, except in special cases regulated by the government, will be abolished. The Ministry of Health plans to submit this amendment for approval in the March 2025 session of the Standing Committee of the National Assembly.

The Ministry of Health warns that declining birth rates pose a serious demographic challenge. Vietnam’s birth rate has fallen below replacement level, dropping from 2.11 children per woman in 2021 to 2.01 in 2022, 1.96 in 2023, and 1.91 in 2024 - the lowest in history.

According to the General Statistics Office, Vietnam’s fertility rate of 1.91 children per woman in 2024 is lower than the Southeast Asian average of 2.0 and exceeds only four countries in the region: Brunei with 1.8 children per woman, Malaysia with 1.6 children, and Thailand and Singapore with 1.0 children per woman.

Urban areas have seen even sharper declines, with 1.67 children per woman in 2024, compared to 2.08 in rural areas. The number of provinces with fertility rates below the replacement level is also rising, from 22 in 2019 to 27 in 2023 and 32 in 2024.

Most provinces experiencing low birth rates are highly urbanized economic hubs, especially in the southern key economic region, where rapid economic growth has led to declining fertility. Southeast Vietnam, the country’s most affluent region, has the lowest birth rate, averaging just 1.47 children per woman.

Professor Giang Thanh Long, a senior lecturer at the National Economics University, attributes the declining birth rate to shifting career priorities, particularly among women. Increasingly, women prioritize their careers, requiring more years of education and professional development.

Raising children is expensive and time-consuming, leading to delayed marriage and childbirth. Vietnamese youth are also experiencing the “sandwich generation” phenomenon, where they are simultaneously responsible for both elderly parents and young children. This additional burden discourages larger families, as caring for multiple generations can hinder career progression.

If birth rates continue to fall, Vietnam will face serious demographic and economic challenges. By 2039, the country will exit its demographic dividend, meaning the period of economic growth driven by a large working-age population will end.

By 2042, the working-age population will peak, after which the workforce will begin shrinking. By 2054, Vietnam’s total population will start declining, with an annual drop of 0.04 percent in the first five years and 0.18 percent by 2064–2069, equivalent to a loss of 200,000 people per year.

Even under a moderate birth rate scenario, population decline would still begin by 2069. A prolonged low birth rate would result in a labor shortage, slowing economic growth. An aging population would increase healthcare and social welfare costs. A shrinking consumer base would impact long-term economic sustainability.

Many countries facing similar challenges have introduced policies to encourage childbirth. Fifty-five governments have implemented policies to increase birth rates, while nineteen governments aim to maintain current fertility levels. Common workplace policies include improved maternity and paternity leave and shortened working hours or part-time options for parents.

 Financial incentives include cash bonuses for childbirth, tax benefits for families, monthly child support allowances, subsidized housing or rental assistance, government-funded childcare and education programs, and state-supported fertility treatments such as IVF subsidies and infertility insurance coverage.

Vo Thu