Vietnam enters 2025 with an ambitious vision for rapid economic growth, setting a target of over 8% GDP expansion as a foundation for sustained double-digit growth from 2026 to 2030.

This level of acceleration is crucial, as failure to maintain high growth could leave the country trapped in the middle-income bracket, preventing it from achieving its long-term national goals.

By 2030, Vietnam aims to become a modern, upper-middle-income nation, and by 2045, it aspires to join the ranks of high-income countries.

A series of strategic milestones will shape the country’s economic future. The approval of national projects such as high-speed rail and nuclear energy marks a turning point in infrastructure development. The designation of Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang as international financial centers highlights Vietnam’s commitment to global economic integration. Additionally, the sweeping reform to streamline government operations is a bold step toward greater efficiency and economic agility.

Vietnam concluded 2024 on a strong note, exceeding all 15 key economic targets. GDP growth outperformed expectations despite global challenges, exports reached record highs, and government revenue far surpassed projections. These achievements reflect effective governance, strategic planning, and the resilience of businesses and citizens.

Since the economic reforms of the late 1980s, Vietnam has been one of the world’s fastest-growing economies. Between 1990 and 2022, its per capita GDP increased by an average of 5.4% per year, a pace that outperformed nearly all regional economies except China and Myanmar.

However, despite this impressive progress, the gap between Vietnam and developed nations remains significant.

The risk of falling behind is ever-present, making sustained high growth an urgent priority. As General Secretary To Lam emphasized, Vietnam cannot afford to slow down while the rest of the world advances.

The possibility of maintaining long-term high growth is not just aspirational but achievable. The World Bank projects that Vietnam can reach high-income status by 2045 if it sustains annual per capita GDP growth at around 6% and increases labor productivity by at least 6.3% per year. This level of growth requires a well-calibrated combination of policy support, investment, and innovation.

Historical precedents reinforce this possibility. Vietnam recorded GDP growth rates of 9.5% in 1995 and 9.3% in 1996. South Korea, during its economic boom from 1960 to 1990, averaged 9.58% annual growth and experienced 14 years with rates above 10%.

China, during its economic transformation between 1977 and 2007, maintained an average growth rate of 10.02% and reached an annual peak of 15.14% in 1984. These success stories serve as powerful motivation for Vietnam’s aspirations today.

In an era driven by artificial intelligence, semiconductor technology, and digital transformation, Vietnam has significant opportunities to accelerate its growth.

With strategic investments in technological infrastructure, a rapidly expanding digital workforce, and strong government policies supporting innovation, the country is positioning itself to become a key player in the global value chain.

The implementation of Resolution 57, which prioritizes fiscal expansion, high-quality workforce development, and legal reforms, is expected to further accelerate economic transformation.

Vietnam must also address the structural barriers that have hindered economic expansion. By removing bureaucratic inefficiencies and streamlining regulatory processes, the country can create a more dynamic environment for businesses and individuals. Unlocking productivity through governance reform will be essential to sustaining high growth.

The challenge of escaping the middle-income trap remains formidable. Currently, 108 countries around the world remain stuck in this bracket, earning between $1,136 and $13,845 per capita. Since 1990, only 34 nations have successfully transitioned to high-income status, demonstrating that the path to economic prosperity requires both strategic decision-making and long-term commitment.

Vietnam’s economic aspirations are clear: sustained high growth through innovation and investment, deeper global integration, and governance reforms that enhance productivity.

With strong national resolve and well-executed policies, the country is well-positioned to realize its vision of becoming a prosperous, high-income nation in the coming decades.

Lan Anh