The Central Inspection Commission has issued Guidance No. 15/2025 to amend and supplement Guidance No. 05/2022, which implements several provisions of Regulation No. 69/2022 by the Politburo regarding disciplinary measures for Party organizations and members who violate policies.

Key changes to disciplinary regulations

Guidance No. 15 removes Points 8.1 and 8.2 from Section III of Guidance No. 05, which previously regulated disciplinary measures for Party members who violated population policy regulations.

Point 8.1 stipulated that if family planning measures adversely affected reproductive health (as confirmed by a district-level hospital or higher), disciplinary action could be mitigated.

Point 8.2 stated that members who intentionally or forcefully disregarded family planning would face harsher disciplinary measures.

In addition, Guidance No. 15 introduces new provisions, stating that no disciplinary action will be taken against cases specified under Clause 2, Article 1 of Ordinance No. 08/2008 by the National Assembly Standing Committee, which amends Article 10 of the 2003 Population Ordinance. This clause stipulates that couples may have one or two children, except in special cases specified by the government.

With this change, from March 20, having a third child or more will no longer be considered a disciplinary violation for Party members.

A shift in population policy

Previously, the Office of the Party Central Committee sent a document to the Central Inspection Commission, the Government Party Committee, the National Assembly Party Committee, and the Ministry of Health Party Committee to convey the Politburo’s views on summarizing the implementation of Resolution No. 21 on population work in the new situation. The document also addressed amending Party and State regulations related to population policy.

The Politburo tasked the Central Inspection Commission with advising on amending the regulations and proactively revising Guidance No. 05 to eliminate disciplinary measures for having a third child or more, in line with revised legal regulations. It was also clarified that past cases where disciplinary action was applied would not be subject to reversal.

The Ministry of Health has proposed to the competent authorities the abolition of outdated regulations on violations of population policy, particularly regarding the number of children.

Addressing declining birth rates

In a draft amendment to Article 10 of the Population Ordinance, the Ministry of Health proposed that couples and individuals have the right to decide on the timing, number of children, and spacing between births. The proposal aims to address declining birth rates and significant regional disparities.

According to the Ministry of Health, Vietnam’s birth rate is among the five lowest in Southeast Asia, with the national fertility rate declining below replacement level. It fell from 2.11 children per woman in 2021 to 2.01 in 2022, and further to 1.96 in 2023 and 1.91 in 2024 — the lowest rate ever recorded, with predictions of continued decline in the coming years.

Forecasts indicate that the birth rate will continue to drop, leading to the end of the "demographic dividend" period by 2039. By 2042, the working-age population is expected to peak, and by 2054, Vietnam may face negative population growth.

Tran Thuong