Gold prices have once again broken records in Vietnam, soaring past VND 101 million/tael (approx. USD 4,120)  -  contrary to some forecasts that anticipated a sharp drop. According to financial experts, gold has now established a new price baseline, making a return to previous levels of VND 70–80 million per tael (USD 2,860–3,270) highly unlikely.

Why is gold rising?

Speaking with VietNamNet, Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan from the University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City pointed to several major factors. These include the shockwaves caused by policies from U.S. President Donald Trump, coupled with rising fears of economic recession and inflation in the United States.

Adding fuel to the fire is the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) plan to cut interest rates once or twice this year. In a low-rate environment, gold typically becomes a more attractive investment.

“When global gold drops by tens of dollars, domestic prices can easily fall by several million dong per tael  -  that’s normal,” Dr. Huan explained. “Most new investors are inexperienced and tend to panic during market tremors, rushing to sell at a loss.”

He added that if global geopolitical conflicts, currency wars, and trade tensions continue to escalate, gold prices could climb even higher.

Some forecasts have predicted that global gold could reach USD 3,100–3,200/oz by mid-April. Dr. Huan said this depends on how unstable the global economy and political landscape become.

“If tensions in the Middle East remain high and trade wars intensify, we’re likely to see new record highs. But making accurate predictions is difficult, especially when markets are swayed by unpredictable leaders like Donald Trump,” he said.

Although domestic gold supply is limited, experts believe demand will not spike because prices are already too high.

“When gold was VND 30–40 million/tael, people were confident buying. But now that it’s hit triple digits, many are cautious. Until a new stable price baseline forms, investors will focus more on selling than buying,” Dr. Huan noted.

Gold still heading upward  -  but not without risk

Dr. Le Xuan Nghia, a member of the National Advisory Council on Financial and Monetary Policies, said global gold prices will continue rising in the long term. While global gold output grows about 1.5% annually, the global money supply increases by 3.5%, driving long-term price appreciation.

With gold recently topping USD 3,085/oz, Dr. Nghia attributes this surge to concerns over U.S. tariff policies, foreign retaliation, and slowing economic growth in both the U.S. and other nations.

“The global economy could slow by 0.3%, while inflation may rise 5% above initial forecasts. That’s putting heavy pressure on the U.S. economy and weakening the U.S. dollar  -  all of which support higher gold prices,” he said.

If the Fed cuts rates twice this year by 0.25% each time, U.S. interest rates would still hover around 4%. Given persistent geopolitical uncertainty, investors are increasingly turning to gold as a safe haven.

In Vietnam, gold prices are also affected by domestic policy. The State Bank of Vietnam currently holds a monopoly on gold imports and exports, meaning that local prices are not fully aligned with global markets. Instead, they’re shaped by unofficial supply channels  -  which has led to domestic gold trading at a premium compared to international prices.

Dr. Nghia called this discrepancy “irrational” and urged an end to Decree 24, advocating for a liberalized gold market.

Don’t expect prices to fall to 70–80 million VND again

Dr. Huan emphasized that gold prices are more influenced by global turmoil than by seasonal factors. Only in stable periods do seasonal effects become noticeable. Right now, gold continues to rise even during typically “low season” months, as trade tensions heat up.

Although the price could adjust slightly after such a strong surge, he believes a new floor has been established. “It’s very unlikely that prices will drop back to the VND 70–80 million/tael range,” he said.

Dr. Nghia agreed: “Usually, after a sharp spike, prices correct somewhat. But after crossing VND 101 million, a drop back to VND 70–80 million is highly improbable.”

He cautioned investors not to buy at the current peak. “Invest during the downswings, not when the price is at its highest,” he advised. “Wait for strong corrections before buying. For those looking to take profits, now may be the time to sell part of your portfolio and re-enter at lower prices.”

Dr. Huan added that while gold is still considered a safe investment, it may no longer be the best option at current price levels. “At over VND 101 million/tael, gold is no longer the safe haven it used to be.”

For long-term investors, however, gold remains a low-risk, low-return asset. Even over the past 20 years  -  factoring in sharp price increases  -  gold has delivered an average return of around 8%, lagging behind stocks and real estate, and only slightly outperforming savings accounts.

Nguyen Le