As Vietnam’s rice export prices continue to fall, hitting a new low of $390 per ton, the Ministry of Industry and Trade is considering implementing a price floor and purchasing rice for stockpiling.

Major export markets decline sharply

A recent report from the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment indicates that Vietnam exported 560,000 tons of rice in February, generating $288.2 million. By the end of February, total rice exports reached 1.1 million tons, valued at $613 million.

While export volume increased by 5.9% year-over-year, total revenue dropped by 13.6% due to a significant decline in average export prices. In the first two months of 2025, the average rice export price was $553.6 per ton, marking an 18.3% decline compared to the same period in 2024.

The Philippines remains Vietnam’s largest rice importer, accounting for 38.6% of total exports. However, shipments to the Philippines have plummeted 35.5%.

Similarly, Indonesia, Vietnam’s second-largest rice market, has almost halted purchases.

On the other hand, some markets have significantly increased their imports. Notably, rice exports to Ivory Coast surged 8.6 times, to Ghana by 4.1 times, and to Turkey by an astonishing 600 times.

At a meeting on April 4 regarding rice production and consumption in the Mekong Delta, Ngo Hong Phong, Director of the Department of Quality, Processing, and Market Development under the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, projected that Vietnam would cultivate 7.03 million hectares of rice in 2025, yielding an estimated 43.14 million tons.

Vietnam expects to have 4.53 million tons of rice available for export in the first half of 2025 and 3.012 million tons in the second half.

Global market pressures and falling prices

According to Phong, global rice trade in 2025 is forecasted at 58.5 million tons, an increase of 450,000 tons from previous projections but still lower than in 2024.

Meanwhile, India’s resumption of rice exports has flooded the market, further pressuring prices. Additionally, increased production in Vietnam, Thailand, and Pakistan has led to a surplus in global supply, pushing rice export prices even lower.

Data from the Vietnam Food Association (VFA) shows that as of March 3, Vietnam’s 5% broken rice export price had dropped to $390 per ton, while 25% broken rice fell to $365 per ton.

Considering a price floor and stockpiling efforts

Facing these challenges, Do Ha Nam, Vice Chairman of VFA, has urged the State Bank of Vietnam to facilitate low-interest loans for farmers and businesses. This would allow them to stockpile rice instead of selling in bulk at low prices.

VFA has also proposed that the Ministry of Industry and Trade establish a price floor for rice exports under Decree 107/2018/ND-CP. The suggested price floor is $500 per ton (FOB).

Commenting on this proposal, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Sinh Nhat Tan stated that the ministry is evaluating the feasibility of a price floor while also considering stockpiling measures to stabilize the market.

"These are among the solutions to maintain price stability for rice farmers. At the same time, the ministry will continue negotiations to open new export markets while maintaining existing ones to ensure the long-term sustainability of rice exports," Deputy Minister Tan emphasized.

Meanwhile, Minister of Agriculture and Environment Do Duc Duy acknowledged that the sharp decline in global rice prices has significantly impacted Vietnam’s domestic market, especially as the Mekong Delta enters peak harvest season.

He stressed the need to assess the severity of the situation, identify its root causes, and implement effective management solutions to restore stability to the rice market and ensure its sustainable growth.

Following the meeting, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment will compile relevant information and submit a report to the government outlining policy recommendations for balancing rice supply and demand in light of both domestic and global market fluctuations. The report is expected to be finalized by March 4 or 5.

Tam An