The recent directive to remove disciplinary measures for party members who have a third child is a critical policy shift, especially as Vietnam faces a declining birth rate, particularly in urban areas, according to expert Nguyen Dinh Cu.

The Central Office of the Communist Party of Vietnam has issued an official notice regarding the Politburo’s review of the implementation of Resolution 21/2017 on population policy and amendments to party and state regulations related to demographic management.

In this notice, the Politburo assigned the Central Inspection Committee to propose revisions to party regulations on demographic policy violations. The committee is also tasked with amending Guideline No. 05/2022 to align with new legal adjustments, ensuring that no disciplinary measures are taken against party members who have a third child or more. However, previously imposed penalties will not be revoked.

Additionally, the Politburo instructed the Party Committee of the National Assembly and the Government to expedite the development and approval of the Population Law, in line with the 13th National Party Congress Resolution, with a target completion date in 2025.

Immediate efforts are required to review and amend all existing legal documents related to birth policies, with revisions to be completed within the first quarter of 2025.

A necessary and urgent policy shift

"This is an essential, urgent, and timely decision," said Professor Nguyen Dinh Cu, former Director of the Institute of Population and Social Issues at the National Economics University in Hanoi.

He emphasized that the policy change is particularly crucial given the sharp decline in birth rates across the country, especially in urban areas.

For decades, the regulation penalizing party members for having more than two children did not apply to the general public. Vietnam currently has over 5.6 million party members, and lifting this restriction is expected to have far-reaching effects beyond just party members.

Professor Cu believes that this policy shift will be a breakthrough in Vietnam’s demographic policy, helping to curb the decline in birth rates. He also sees it as a precursor to further reforms, including amendments to the 2008 Population Ordinance and the development of a comprehensive Population Law, ensuring consistency across Vietnam’s legal and political framework.

Alarming decline in birth rates

"I am deeply concerned about the declining birth rates in Vietnam," Professor Cu said.

According to a recent mid-term population and housing survey by the General Statistics Office, Vietnam’s total fertility rate in 2024 dropped to 1.91 children per woman - the lowest in recorded history. This marks the second consecutive year the birth rate has fallen below replacement level.

Vietnam's fertility rate in 2024 was lower than the Southeast Asian average of 2.0 children per woman. Only four countries in the region had lower birth rates than Vietnam: Brunei (1.8), Malaysia (1.6), Thailand, and Singapore (both at 1.0).

Urban areas are experiencing the steepest decline, with the fertility rate dropping to 1.67 children per woman, significantly lower than rural areas, where the rate is 2.08. For years, rural birth rates exceeded replacement levels, but they have now fallen below that threshold.

The number of provinces with birth rates below replacement level is rising rapidly. In 2019, there were 22 such provinces; by 2023, the number increased to 27, and by 2024, it had reached 32. Ho Chi Minh City, along with most provinces in the Southeastern and Mekong Delta regions, now reports birth rates as low as 1.39 to 1.74 children per woman.

The Ministry of Health has announced that the General Department of Population has completed its proposal for a new Population Law and is preparing to submit it to the government. The law is expected to be presented to the National Assembly during its 10th session in 2025.

The draft Population Law moves away from previous limitations on the number of children per couple, instead granting individuals and families full reproductive rights. This represents a fundamental shift from the restrictive policies of the 2008 Population Ordinance.

Vietnam faces negative population growth by 2059 under current trends

In its assessment of the proposed Population Law, the Ministry of Health warns that in major urban and economically developed regions, more people are choosing to remain childless or have fewer children.

The birth rate in these areas has fallen significantly below replacement levels, particularly in the Southeastern, Mekong Delta, and parts of the Central Coast regions. The ministry predicts this downward trend will continue.

Professor Cu cautions that persistently low birth rates could have severe consequences, including accelerated aging, labor shortages, and social welfare challenges - issues that many countries with declining populations are already struggling with. He also pointed out that a shrinking population could lead to wasted infrastructure and resources.

"Vietnam’s population is aging rapidly. On a recent visit to Thai Binh Province, I found that in one commune in Thai Thuy District, 20% of the population was elderly," he shared.

According to population projections for 2069, if Vietnam’s birth rate remains low, the country will face negative population growth by 2059, with an annual population decline of -0.04%. Under a moderate fertility scenario, Vietnam would reach zero population growth by 2069.

Vo Thu