VietNamNet Bridge – After the last trading session of the week on Friday, the VN-Index closed at 481.13 points, 3.55 per cent down over the previous week and 7.18 per cent adrift from the figure at the end of May.

Past experience shows foreign investments often level off just before fluctuations in the exchange rate and return as soon as the exchange rate stabilises.

On the HCM City Stock Exchange, the value of trading averaged VND1.1 trillion (US$52.3 million) every session, a slight decrease over the previous week, with an average volume of 62.6 million shares changing hands.

On the Ha Noi Stock Exchange, the HNX-Index had lost 2.6 per cent compared to the close last Friday, reaching 62.76 points.

The average trading value and volume were VND309.2 billion ($14.7 million) and 41.7 million shares.

The interest rate ceiling for deposits in Vietnamese dong on one to six month terms slipped by 0.5 per cent to 7 per cent per year, while the cap on deposit rates of terms of 6 months and above were removed. The rate for deposits in US dollars also fell back from 2 per cent to 1.25 per cent. Meanwhile, the interbank rate was lifted to VND21,036 after standing at VND20,828 for a lengthy period.

The State Bank of Viet Nam adjusted its interest rates as commercial banks have been reducing their own rates for a while. "This move will have little impact on the deposit market as reactions to the changes surfaced long before that," commented Dao Hong Duong from the PetroVietnam Securities Company. "As far as the stock market is concerned, it will not be affected significantly in the short term."

After continuously selling their shares, foreign investors returned to be net buyers last Friday, by a margin of VND14.8 billion ($704,000). Their net selling portfolios included large-cap stocks, which have had a relatively strong influence on market trends.

Figures in the past have shown that foreign investments often level off just before fluctuations in the exchange rate and would return as soon as the exchange rate stabilises , said Duong. "Therefore, we hope the balance of foreign net transactions will improve," he added.

Technically, said Duong, the VN-Index had fallen into the oversold area. "The support level of 450-460 points is significantly important to the index and it is difficult to brake without sudden negative information."

Investors should prioritise shares on the HCM City Stock Exchange, especially those performing fairly well if the VN-Index drops to this level, Duong advocated.

Source: VNS