As of 4 p.m. on September 3, the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) reported that the center of Typhoon Yagi was located in the northeastern part of the East Sea, with maximum sustained winds reaching 102 km/h and gusts up to 120 km/h. The storm is moving northwest at approximately 15 km/h.

Forecasts indicate that Typhoon Yagi will continue to strengthen over the next few days, with wind speeds potentially reaching 150 km/h and gusts up to 180 km/h. The storm is expected to head towards Hainan Island and the Gulf of Tonkin, with a high likelihood of directly impacting northern and central Vietnam.

Dr. Huy Nguyen, a climate change and disaster warning expert, shared his analysis of Typhoon Yagi’s potential trajectory and intensity. According to Dr. Nguyen, Yagi has already moved past Luzon Island in the Philippines, which typically weakens storms due to its mountainous terrain. However, Yagi managed to avoid the higher mountain ranges, allowing it to retain its structure and intensity as it entered the East Sea.

“The sea surface temperature in the northern part of the East Sea is currently around 31°C, providing ample energy for Yagi to strengthen,” Dr. Nguyen noted. “We expect Yagi to reach typhoon status by the evening of September 4 and potentially become a super typhoon by September 6 as it nears the coast of Hainan Island and the Leizhou Peninsula.”

Dr. Nguyen also pointed out that the storm’s path will significantly affect its intensity. If Yagi passes over the high mountains of Hainan Island, it will likely weaken. However, if it moves through the strait between Hainan and Leizhou, it could maintain much of its strength, posing a greater threat to the Gulf of Tonkin.

The current models from the United States’ GFS and Canada’s CMC suggest Yagi will make landfall on the Leizhou Peninsula, while the European ECMWF model predicts it will pass over Hainan Island. Dr. Nguyen leans towards the European model due to the influence of a high-pressure system forming over the Tibetan Plateau, which is likely to steer Yagi westward or slightly northwest towards Hainan Island.

Given the current atmospheric conditions, Dr. Nguyen cautioned that Yagi should not be underestimated. Even if the storm weakens after passing Hainan or Leizhou, it could still maintain wind speeds of up to 150 km/h as it approaches the northern coast of Vietnam.

Coastal provinces from Thanh Hoa to Quang Ninh are advised to prepare for the storm. Measures include reinforcing roofs, securing loose objects, and planning for the evacuation of residents from low-lying and vulnerable areas.

Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Huy