As Vietnam’s "golden population structure" phase comes to an end, the country is expected to enter an aging population stage around 2038. Without maximizing the advantages of this period, Vietnam risks facing the phenomenon of "aging before getting rich."

Voters from Ba Ria - Vung Tau, Yen Bai, and Tien Giang have recently expressed concerns to the Ministry of Health regarding population issues.

Experts predict that Vietnam’s "golden population structure" will conclude by 2038, marking the beginning of an aging population phase.

If current demographic advantages are not fully utilized, the country risks aging before becoming prosperous, especially given its rapid rate of population aging.

Rapid aging and demographic challenges

Vietnam's population surpassed 101 million in 2024, ranking among the world's 16 most populous countries. However, the country faces a dual challenge: increasing life expectancy alongside declining birth rates.

As of 2024, the fertility rate has dropped to just 1.91 children per woman. The elderly population, aged 60 and over, has reached 14.2 million, an increase of 2.8 million compared to 2019.

It is projected that by 2030, this number will approach 18 million, reflecting a sharp rise of nearly 4 million in just five years.

Currently, the proportion of those aged 65 and older makes up 9.3% of the total population. By 2036-2038, this ratio is expected to reach 14%, signifying Vietnam's transition to an aging society.

Unlike developed countries, which take several decades or even centuries to shift from an "aging" to an "aged" society, Vietnam is expected to undergo this transition within just 18-25 years.

Professor Giang Thanh Long from the National Economics University noted that the rapid pace of population aging in Vietnam, combined with an average income level, presents significant challenges.

Since 2011, the aging process has accelerated, with per capita income rising from USD 1,300 to around USD 4,700 in 2024. Despite this growth, the share of those aged 65 and over has increased from just over 7% to 9.3%.

If the income level does not reach the high-income threshold of USD 14,000 per person per year by 2036, as classified by the World Bank in 2024, the fear of "aging before getting rich" will become a reality.

Capitalizing on the "golden population structure"

Vietnam is currently experiencing the "golden population structure," with two working-age individuals supporting one dependent. However, if the birth rate continues to decline, this demographic advantage will end by 2039, after just 32 years.

The Ministry of Health is focusing on measures to address the low birth rate and maximize the advantages of the "golden population structure." There are only 14 years left to make full use of this opportunity before the aging phase becomes dominant.

Responding to voter concerns, Health Minister Dao Hong Lan stated that the Ministry has completed the draft Population Law dossier and submitted it to the Government. The draft law emphasizes maintaining a replacement fertility rate nationwide, addressing disparities between regions, and adapting to the aging population.

One key proposal is allowing couples to decide the timing, number, and spacing of their children. Additionally, the ministry suggests extending maternity leave from 6 months to 7 months for women having a second child.

As of March 20, 2025, the Central Inspection Commission’s new guidance states that party members will not be disciplined for having a third child or more.

The Ministry of Health is finalizing a report to incorporate feedback from government members, aiming to present the draft law at a special legislative session in 2025.

If approved, the draft law will be submitted to the 15th National Assembly at its 9th session in 2025 and potentially adopted in the 10th session of the same year.

Vo Thu