Hoai and Duong, both 37, and their son, a first-grader, live in Thu Duc City, HCMC. Their total monthly income of VND45 million from various sources barely covers essentials: house payments by installments, living costs, their child’s schooling and healthcare, plus support for aging parents. They save just VND2-3 million monthly for emergencies like job loss or illness.

“No money to have more children,” Hoai sighed, explaining why they stopped at one.

“Raising kids is too tough now—not like the old days 'when heaven births elephants, heaven also provides grass'," Duong added.

HCM City has the lowest birth rate in the Southeast region and nationwide. For five years (2019-2024), it hovered between 1.32-1.53 children per woman. In 2024, it edged up to 1.39, meaning that many HCM City families have just one kid.

In 2024, HCM City’s per capita income hit $7,600 yearly, 1.7 times the national average. Among six socioeconomic regions, the Southeast (HCM City, Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Binh Phuoc, Tay Ninh, Ba Ria – Vung Tau) tops monthly per capita income, according to 2023 Statistical Yearbook.

Yet, it’s also the lowest-fertility region (1.48 children per woman, a 15-year low).

“HCM City is a large urban area. Urban costs pile on economic pressure on young couples as living, housing, entertainment costs drag down birth rates,” says Pham Chanh Trung, head of HCM City’s Population Department.

Per Numbeo data, a family of four in HCM City, needs $1,746 monthly (VND44.2 million) for living, not including expenditures on rent, child daycare and private schools.

Dr Pham Vu Hoang, Deputy Director of the Population Department under the Ministry of Health (MOH), said nationwide low fertility has many roots. In urban areas with better economic conditions, the rate is 1.67 children per woman. Scarce schools, fear of fees, and living costs deter childbearing.

“Many Vietnamese crave enjoyment, pouring time and money into personal fun over kids,” Hoang noted.

Plus, women’s higher education levels and workforce participation has delayed marriage and limited families to two kids. Younger people tend to marry later, have fewer kids, and have them later when they have stable jobs and income.

Young people in HCM City, the most dynamic place in the country, tend to marry later than average. The average age of the first marriage of young people in the city is the highest in the country (over 30 years old). The age of first marriage for men is 31.5, and for women nearly 29 years old.

Consequences

Experts warned that prolonged low fertility isn’t just a family issue, but also reshapes national, regional, and local demographics. Labor shortages and faster aging loom, straining healthcare and welfare systems.

In HCM City, though the population aging appeared 6 years later than the rest of the country, the number of elderly in the city is currently over 1.1 million, accounting for 12.05 percent of the population.

Low births and aging are dual challenges that sap young labor, cut productivity and creativity, and hurt long-term socioeconomic growth.

Young parents have a lot of pressure not to have two children. But today's only-child generation also faces pressure when growing up due to the great investment and expectation from their families. In the future, children will have the pressure to support their old parents according to tradition.

China’s former one-child model is often cited. Parents had one child under the 4-2-1 model (one child raised by parents and four grandparents). When growing up, as the only child in a family, they faced the 1-2-4 model (one child caring for parents and four grandparents).

Pham Chanh Trung said tackling HCM City’s low births needs full political system action. Policies must sync on education, healthcare, culture, entertainment, social housing, and tax breaks.

“Only when people feel at ease raising kids will they willingly have two children,” he said.

Digital spaces and virtual over real-world ties also curb marriage and births. Deeper global integration further solidifies and spreads this low-birth trend, notes Population Department Director Le Thanh Dung.

Vo Thu