After a prolonged period of sharp growth, Hanoi’s condominium market showed signs of cooling in Q1 2025, with the slowest quarterly price increase in nearly two years, according to CBRE.

Primary market prices have reached approximately VND 75 million/m² (excluding VAT and maintenance fees), a modest increase over the previous quarter. However, this represents the smallest quarterly gain since Q2 2023. Most new supply is concentrated in large-scale suburban townships.

In the secondary market, resale price momentum also slowed. Current transaction prices average around VND 50 million/m², up just 3% from the previous quarter. Most projects saw little to no price movement, except for select centrally located developments with strong rental potential.

This cooling trend was also highlighted in a recent market report by OneHousing, which noted that after eight consecutive quarters of growth, Hanoi’s primary apartment market officially entered an adjustment phase in early 2025.

Data shows the city recorded only 4,000 new units in Q1, with around 3,000 sold - a dramatic 60–70% drop from Q4 2024, which saw 11,000–12,000 units.

“This marks the first quarter since Q1 2023 where both supply and demand have dropped significantly,” the report noted.

Explaining the slowdown, Tran Minh Tien, Director of Market Research & Customer Insights at One Mount Group, said the first quarter often coincides with the Lunar New Year holiday, traditionally a “pause” period for the real estate market. As a result, many developers delayed new launches to Q2.

“Although some projects began collecting bookings in late 2024, most investors opted to wait and observe market developments before officially launching. Holding back inventory early in the year is a common risk-mitigation strategy,” Tien explained.

Another key factor, he added, is limited financial capacity among buyers. The high selling prices relative to average affordability have made many hesitant to purchase at this time.

CBRE reported a diverse supply mix for early 2025, including mid-range, high-end, and luxury segments. However, since 2022, Hanoi has not added any new inventory in the affordable housing category.

Looking ahead, CBRE forecasts Hanoi will receive approximately 31,700 new condominium units this year, mainly in suburban districts such as Dan Phuong, Long Bien, and Dong Anh.

Investors believe that the influx of new supply will increase the urgency to sell. Alongside a more cautious and patient buyer mindset, this may continue to moderate Hanoi’s condo market in the coming months.

A recent VietNamNet survey conducted from mid-March revealed that 47% of respondents prefer to wait for further price drops before purchasing a home - the highest proportion. Meanwhile, 43% were ready to buy now, and the remainder gave alternative answers.

Hong Khanh