On the morning of April 11, domestic gold prices suddenly surged to an all-time high of VND 106.4 million per tael (approximately USD 4,250). By midday, prices retreated to over VND 104 million (USD 4,150) per tael for gold jewelry and more than VND 105 million (USD 4,200) for SJC gold bars.

Why gold prices are fluctuating

According to Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan from the University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City, gold prices dropped sharply a few days prior due to profit-taking after previous rallies. At the same time, the stock market was deep in the red, prompting margin calls and forcing some investors to sell gold to cover stock losses, leading to a sharp price correction.

Yet just two sessions later, gold rebounded to a new peak.

The resurgence is fueled by global economic instability, especially concerns about inflation and recession risks in the U.S. linked to ongoing trade wars. Investors are seeking safe-haven assets like gold, pushing up demand.

In China, fears of yuan devaluation are also driving increased gold accumulation among investors. Additionally, policy shifts under President Donald Trump are contributing to market uncertainty, leading more people to seek the safety of gold.

Financial expert Phan Dung Khanh told VietNamNet that the current rally is also supported by a weakening U.S. dollar and a renewed, albeit modest, buying spree by central banks.

“There was a point when gold fell below USD 3,000 per ounce, but it quickly bounced back above USD 3,200. Therefore, it's quite likely that global gold prices could rise to USD 3,500–3,600 per ounce in the first half of this year,” Khanh explained.

Is it risky to buy gold now?

According to Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan, domestic gold prices are closely tied to international prices.

“When gold reached VND 100 million per tael, I predicted it could rise to VND 110 million. I now believe this milestone could come sooner than expected. At VND 106 million, just two more strong sessions could push prices to VND 110 million (USD 4,400),” he said.

Experts agree that forecasts of gold reaching USD 3,600 per ounce this year are feasible.

However, gold prices rarely rise in a straight line. Fluctuations are expected due to global economic shifts, especially with the transition from trade wars to currency wars, increasing devaluation pressure on national currencies - which in turn supports gold’s upward momentum.

Phan Dung Khanh noted that domestic and global gold prices are trending toward convergence. “There may be variations, but domestic prices can’t move in the opposite direction from international ones,” he said.

He advised investors to diversify. For those particularly drawn to gold, he recommended not allocating more than 50% of assets to it. “A balanced approach would be to allocate 30–40% to gold, and the rest to savings, government bonds, or other investment vehicles,” Khanh suggested.

According to him, gold follows longer cycles than the economy or stock market. Typically, gold cycles span 20 to 40 years, whereas economic cycles are around 10 years.

Even in years when gold performs strongly, returns usually top out at 20–30% and persist for only 2–3 years before entering a phase of stagnation or decline. Given that gold has already climbed over 50% in just one year, Khanh believes this is an exceptionally rare occurrence.

He cautioned that as gold continues breaking records, buyers must be careful not to jump in at peak levels, as the risk of losses becomes significantly higher.

Nguyen Le