VietNamNet Bridge – The electricity outage occurring in all the southern provinces some days ago and the electricity cuts in the first month of summer has made businesses worried stiff.

An accident caused the electricity cut in southern provinces

Speaking at the 2013 mid term Vietnam Business Forum, Motonobu Sato, Chair of the Japanese Enterprises’ Association said investors now worry about the power supply in Vietnam. In 2010, Japanese invested enterprises once suffered from the alternating electricity cuts. Meanwhile, they have been warned about the electricity shortage this dry season.

Power plant development program broken?

According to the Vietnam Energy Association, a lot of power plant projects have not been put into operation as initially scheduled. The investors are still busy fixing the problems at the Song Tranh 2 hydropower plant, while the Uong Bi thermopower plant has not finished the expansion of the power generation unit No. 2.

The Vung Ang 1, An Khanh 1 were planned to get completed in 2012. However, sources have said they would be operational in 2013 at the soonest.

Meanwhile, other projects, which need to be implemented in 2011-2020, still have not found the investors.

Under the 2011-2020 national power plant development program, Vietnam strives to have the power generation capacity of 75,000 MW by 2020, and 146,800 MW by 2030.

If Vietnam can fulfill the program, which means that it would have 75,000 MW by 2020, it would be able to satisfy the demand that serves the economic growth rate of 6 percent per annum. The 75,000 MW would be not enough for the economy with the GDP growth rate of 7-8 percent per annum and the improved living standards.

However, even the 75,000 MW target proves to be unfeasible.

It is estimated that by the end of 2013, the total electricity output would reach 30,000 MW. As such, in 2014-2020, Vietnam would need to have 6,000 MW more every year.

Also under the national program, by 2020, coal run power plants would make up 48 percent of the total output. This spells that Vietnam would consume the coal amount of 67.3 million per annum. By 2030, coal run power plants would make 51.6 percent, or 76,000 MW, and they would need 171 million tons of coal.

The coal supply for coal run thermopower plants remains questionable. Vietnam would begin importing coal from 2015, but it is still not sure about the supply sources.

Only Australia and Indonesia could be the coal exporters to Vietnam, but none of them has given the answer if they can sell coal to Vietnam and for how long.

In fact, Vietnam can still exploit coal in the Red River Delta basin which is believed to have the reserves of 200 billions of tons, and in some other localities.

However, no matter whether Vietnam imports coal or exploits coal domestically, it will need huge sums of capital. For example, the 20 mines in Quang Ninh province would need the total capital of $6 billion.

Clean energy?

While the fact that the first wind power plant has provided electricity to the national grid has made Vietnamese excited, experts are not too optimistic about the clean energy development.

Regarding the wind power, it is estimated that the production cost is very high at VND4,000 per kwh. On Phu Quy island in Ninh Thuan province, wind power is selling at VND7,000 to people. Some local businesses have stopped operation because of the overly high electricity prices.

As for solar energy, it is estimated that a plant would need the investment rate of several billions of dollars.

Tran Thuy