VietNamNet Bridge – Viet Nam’s consumer confidence remained fairly stagnant with one point increase to stand at 88 for the last quarter of 2012.

Shoppers pick up goods at a Co-opMart supermarket in Ha Noi. Concern over the economic situation caused last year’s consumer confidence index to remain fairly stagnant compared to the previous year.

But it was 11 points lower than a year ago, according to Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and insights into what consumers watch and buy.

In Viet Nam, the number of respondents in a recession increased from 76 per cent in the third quarter to 79 per cent in the fourth quarter, an 18 per cent increase since the beginning of the year.

The economy was again the biggest concern among Vietnamese consumers, increasing seven points to 27 per cent in the fourth quarter.

Higher utility bills (electricity, gas, heating, etc) and job security followed with 18 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively.

While global respondents’ employment concerns remained flat at 15 per cent relative to the same quarter in 2011, concerns about the economy declined three percentage points globally from the fourth quarter of 2011 to 15 per cent.

Respondents’ concerns over increasing food prices and utility bills went up globally since the same period in 2011, increasing one and two points, respectively, to eight per cent each.

The survey showed that about 37 per cent of Vietnamese online respondents described their job prospects in the fourth quarter as good or /excellent, a decline from 40 per cent in the third quarter and 58 per cent from a year ago.

Forty-four percent of Vietnamese consumers were confident that their personal finances will be good or excellent in the coming year, a slight increase of two points compared to the previous quarter. However, this was a decline of 10 points compared to a year ago.

Saving discretionary cash was the top choice (60 per cent) among Vietnamese consumers, but it remained flat compared to the previous quarter.

Ninety-one per cent of respondents said they had changed their spending to save on household expenses, mainly on new clothes (71 per cent), out-of-home entertainment (68 per cent), gas and electricity (68 per cent) and upgrade of technology (57 per cent).

Global respondents’ optimism for local job prospects held steady, with 45 per cent of respondents anticipating that employment opportunities would be good or excellent in the coming year. This represented no change from the third quarter and an increase of three percentage points from the same quarter in 2011.

Confidence in personal finances was 53 per cent, an increase of one point from the fourth quarter in 2011.

Dr.Venkatesh Bala, chief economist at the Cambridge Group, said, “with continuing uncertainty about the US debt ceiling and mandated spending cuts, along with as-yet-tentative signs of economic stabilisation in Europe, we can expect continued caution and moderate growth in the first quarter of 2013.”

Regional roundup

Asia-Pacific (101) and Latin America (96) reported the only quarterly consumer confidence increases, up one and two index points, respectively, compared to the third quarter.

Middle East/Africa declined two points to 96, North America dropped one point to 90, and Europe fell three index points to 71.

In key economies, confidence fell by one point in the US (89), increased two points in China (108), increased one point in Germany (87) and remained flat in Japan (59).

India reported the highest index at 121, a two-point increase over the third quarter in 2012.

North America posted the most significant decline in recessionary mindset, down 15 points from the fourth quarter in 2011 to 71 per cent in the fourth quarter in 2012.

Consumer confidence fell in 20 of 29 European markets, and 10 posted a confidence decline of six points or more since the third quarter.

The biggest European decline was reported in Belgium, down 14 points from last quarter to 74.
Europeans’ outlook for personal finances, job prospects and immediate spending intentions all declined last quarter.

Confidence fell in eight of 14 Asia-Pacific markets in the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter in 2012, with four-point declines in Hong Kong and Taiwan.

But the region reported the highest consumer confidence scores overall.

India topped the global list with an index of 121, an increase of two points from last quarter, followed by the Philippines with an increase of one point to 119 and Indonesia, which declined two points to a score of 117. China increased two index points to a score of 108.

The Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions, conducted between November 10–27 last year, polled more than 29,000 online consumers in 58 countries throughout Asia-Pacific, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, and North America.

Source: VNS